Fall Flu Season in Prescott: What's Different This Year

If you've felt like more people around you are sick this fall and winter, you're not imagining it. The 2025-2026 respiratory virus season has been a difficult one across the country, and Prescott has not been spared.

As your local Direct Primary Care physician, I want to walk you through what's actually different this year, what the data says about flu, COVID, and RSV in 2026, and — most importantly — when you should call us instead of waiting it out.

Key Takeaways

• The 2025-2026 flu season has caused at least 15 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations, and 7,400 deaths in the U.S. so far, with the weekly hospitalization rate hitting its second-highest peak since 2010-2011 (CDC FluView, 2026)
• A drifted H3N2 strain — clade 2a.3a.1 subclade K — accounts for 93% of subtyped influenza A specimens this season (CDC MMWR, March 2026)
• Adults 65+ accounted for 57% of flu hospitalizations and 71% of flu deaths last season — a hospitalization rate over 100 times higher than younger adults (CDC MMWR, 2025)
• Antiviral medications like Tamiflu only work if started within 48 hours of symptom onset — same-day appointments aren't a luxury, they're medicine (CDC, 2025)

How Bad Is the 2025-2026 Flu Season, Really?

The numbers are sobering. According to CDC FluView surveillance, this season has already produced at least 15 million flu illnesses, 180,000 flu hospitalizations, and 7,400 flu deaths nationwide — and we're not done yet. The weekly hospitalization rate peaked at 12.6 per 100,000 in late December, the second-highest peak the CDC has measured since 2010-2011.

Why so severe? Two reasons.

First, a drifted H3N2 strain. A CDC MMWR report published in March 2026 found that 88% of influenza A specimens this season are H3N2, and 93% of those belong to a newer antigenically drifted clade called subclade K. "Drifted" means the virus has changed enough that the immune system — including immunity from prior infections and from this year's vaccine — recognizes it less efficiently.

Second, lower vaccine effectiveness. Interim CDC analyses estimate this year's flu vaccine is 22-34% effective against outpatient flu visits and roughly 30% effective against hospitalization in adults — lower than recent seasons. That doesn't mean the vaccine doesn't work. It means it's reducing your risk by about a third instead of half. CDC modeling credits last season's vaccine with preventing roughly 81% of vaccine-preventable deaths in adults 65+. Even a partially effective vaccine prevents thousands of deaths.

What's Happening in Arizona Specifically?

Arizona's flu season has tracked a few weeks behind the national curve this year. According to the Arizona Department of Health Services week 48 surveillance report, the state had 355 lab-confirmed flu cases that week, with influenza-like illness running at 2.3% — already above seasonal baseline. Activity has continued to build into the holiday season rather than peaking in early November the way Arizona seasons typically do.

Why does that matter for Prescott? Two local factors stack on top of the national picture:

• Snowbirds and holiday travelers. Prescott's population shifts every fall and winter. Travelers arriving from northern states bring their respiratory viruses with them, and the holiday gatherings that follow are exactly the kind of indoor mixing that lets a drifted strain spread.
• A high concentration of adults 65+. The hospitalization rate gap between older and younger adults last season was staggering: about 755 per 100,000 in adults 65+ versus 6.5 per 100,000 in adults 18-49 (CDC MMWR, 2025). In a community with as many retirees as Prescott, that gap translates directly into our local hospital and ED census.

Which Vaccines Should I Get This Year?

Flu Vaccine — Especially for Adults 65+

The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) preferentially recommends that adults 65 and older receive one of three high-immunogenicity flu vaccines: Fluzone High-Dose Trivalent, Flublok Recombinant Trivalent, or Fluad adjuvanted (CDC MMWR ACIP recommendations, 2025). All three trigger a stronger immune response in older adults than the standard-dose vaccine. Fluzone HD contains four times the antigen of standard-dose; Flublok contains three times. There's no preference among the three — get whichever is available.

If you're under 65 and otherwise healthy, the standard-dose flu shot is appropriate. The flu vaccine isn't perfect this year, but "not perfect" still translates into thousands of prevented hospitalizations and deaths.

RSV Vaccine — One-Time, Not Annual

Respiratory Syncytial Virus is the third leg of the fall/winter respiratory virus stool, and it's particularly dangerous in seniors. The good news: a single dose of RSV vaccine provides multi-year protection. The CDC currently recommends a one-time RSV vaccine for all adults 75 and older, and for adults 50-74 with risk factors like chronic heart or lung disease (CDC RSV vaccine guidance, 2025).

The effectiveness data is striking. Real-world CDC data shows the Arexvy vaccine was about 83% effective against RSV-associated hospitalization and 77% effective against RSV-associated emergency visits in adults 60+; Abrysvo came in at 73% and 79% respectively (CDC RSV clinical guidance, 2024-2025). RSV vaccine coverage in adults 75+ rose from 28.8% to 47.5% over the past year — more eligible people are getting it, and the data shows it's working.

COVID-19 Updated Vaccine

Updated COVID-19 boosters remain available and recommended for adults 65+ and for anyone with risk factors. If you haven't had a COVID booster or COVID infection in the last 6-12 months and you're in a higher-risk group, this is worth a conversation at your next visit.

Does Altitude Make Respiratory Illness Worse in Prescott?

This is a question I get every year, and the answer is yes — but with nuance. At 5,400 feet, oxygen partial pressure is lower than at sea level. Healthy adults adjust without noticing. But for people with COPD, congestive heart failure, severe asthma, or other chronic lung disease, altitude already pushes their baseline oxygenation lower. When flu, RSV, or COVID pneumonia hits on top of that, the margin for error shrinks.

This is part of why I'm aggressive about same-day visits during respiratory virus season for our higher-risk members. A patient with COPD who develops a cough doesn't have the luxury of waiting four days to see a doctor.

When Should You Call the Office?

Most flu, COVID, and RSV cases in healthy adults can be managed at home. But there are a few situations where calling sooner saves outcomes — especially because antiviral medications only work if started within 48 hours of symptom onset.

CDC clinical guidance on oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and other neuraminidase inhibitors is clear: starting within 48 hours of symptom onset reduces uncomplicated flu duration by about a day and reduces complications in higher-risk adults. Start it on day 4 and you've largely missed the window. This is one of the strongest arguments for our same-day-access DPC model — there is no urgent care wait that fits inside a 48-hour clock comfortably.

Call us same-day if you have any of the following:

• Fever above 100.4°F that lasts more than 3 days, or fever that comes back after improving
• Shortness of breath, wheezing, or chest pain
• Confusion, severe weakness, or trouble staying awake
• Inability to keep liquids down for more than 12 hours
• Symptoms in a member with COPD, CHF, diabetes, or another chronic condition
• Symptoms that suddenly get worse after seeming to improve (a classic sign of secondary bacterial pneumonia)

Call 911 immediately for severe shortness of breath, blue lips, chest pain, or anyone you can't keep awake.

Practical Steps for the Rest of This Season

• If you haven't been vaccinated yet, it's not too late. Flu activity typically continues into March or April. Vaccination this week still provides meaningful protection for the back half of the season.
• Stock a basic at-home toolkit. A reliable thermometer, a pulse oximeter (especially for adults 65+), acetaminophen or ibuprofen, electrolyte replacement, and a few rapid COVID-19 tests.
• Don't "push through" symptoms. The reflex to keep working is the wrong one with respiratory viruses. Rest, hydrate, and call us early.
• Treat the 48-hour antiviral window as real. If you wake up with sudden fever, body aches, and exhaustion — that's not a cold building. That's the flu starting. Call same-day.

Our Direct Primary Care model is designed for exactly this season. Same-day appointments. Direct phone access to me and to Jennifer. Unlimited visits with no co-pays. Wholesale-priced rapid testing in office.

If you're already a member, call 928-515-2803 the moment something feels wrong. If you're not yet a member, you can enroll here or contact us to talk it through. The best time to have a doctor on call is before you need one.